There have been a lot of issues surrounding colleges and universities—collectively known as higher education—across the nation. Undergraduate enrollment rates are down, impacting universities’ financial health who rely on them for constant revenue, leaving some institutions uncertain of their future.
The drop is due to multiple reasons, including but not limited to the demographic cliff, Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) issues and the financial perception of a college education.
According to Seattle University’s InformSU data, requested by The Spectator, first-time first-year enrollment has decreased by 5.1% from a decade ago. While applications are down from last year—a high for the university—in the long run, they are up 12.5% from 2014. Overall, since 2010, Seattle U’s total undergraduate enrollment has only decreased by 4.7%.
Seattle U is doing comparatively well nationally as U.S. undergraduate college enrollment continues to decrease since its peak in 2010, by around 14.9% since then, according to Education Data Initiative.
At its most extreme, enrollment declines can lead to layoffs or school closures and mergers, as seen in the University of New Orleans and Eastern Nazarene College. The state of higher education impacts us all as students as it could lead to budget problems for Seattle U, which could lead to changes in what the university can provide its students in faculty, resources, facilities, etc.
Demographic Cliff
The “demographic cliff” or “enrollment cliff” is a term used by experts in the higher education field to refer to the lowering college-eligible population due to the 2008 recession.
Birth rates declined due to the recession, according to Pew Research, which means that there are fewer high school students, resulting in fewer college applicants. The impact will be felt following 2025 as that is when the traditional aged high school students would be applying and enrolling to universities across the nation. The trend is said to continue for a decade at least, till 2035.
James Miller, associate provost and dean of admission, is hopeful for Seattle U, even at the edge of this demographic cliff. In an email to The Spectator, he described how his hope resides in Seattle U’s faculty, staff, and academic programs to allow the university to compete with other universities for students.
“Our ability to better communicate the value of what already exists in considerable measure in terms of quality programs and support will drive good outcomes in this challenging market,” Miller wrote.
Provost Shane Martin similarly wrote to The Spectator about his confidence in Seattle U’s ability to withstand the declining enrollments. He noted how universities in the Pacific Northwest will not be as impacted as other regions of the country. Martin mentioned that the university is expanding marketing and recruitment efforts to a wider range of potential students, in anticipation of the demographic cliff.
He also explained how Seattle U is uniquely positioned as a private Jesuit university to acclimate to the changing environment of higher education.
“Seattle University, like all institutions of higher education, regularly evaluates its academic programs using a number of metrics. As a private institution, we are particularly well positioned to grow and adapt to the changing educational needs of society in alignment with our mission,” Martin wrote.
Problems with the FAFSA
In an email to The Spectator, Monica Ingram, vice provost for enrollment management, acknowledged how the FAFSA negatively impacted enrollment for this academic year, leading to fewer enrolled students than anticipated.
Ingram also noted that some changes to the FAFSA negatively impacted prospective and current students.
“The recent changes to the FAFSA also resulted in families with multiple children in college no longer being able to have that consideration in determining unmet need, though the financial challenge to those families remained. Consequently, this year, when possible, [Seattle] U increased aid awards to offset that additional need; however, our aid resources are limited,” Ingram wrote.
FAFSA impacts enrollment as, without the FAFSA, students are ineligible for some financial aid which increases their net cost of attendance.
According to a survey from the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, 43% of private, non-profit universities reported a smaller incoming class due to the FAFSA. Seattle U seems to fit within this statistic as the university experienced a 14.7% decrease in first-time first-year students.
This is a point of concern for the university as financial cost is the main barrier to obtaining a degree. A report from the Gallup and Lumina Foundation found that 85% of adults cited the cost of the degree as a reason for not enrolling or for dropping out.
Martin stated that college affordability was a major concern for the university. He also provided some information on how the university intends to support current and prospective students in the coming years when it comes to costs.
“Increasing support for student scholarships will be a major goal in our next Capital Campaign. We are also involved in initiatives to lower the cost of instructional materials which is led by Seattle University faculty librarians,” Martin wrote.
Perception of College Education
There is an underlying issue within American society impacting higher education that is much more difficult for universities to overcome: a decreasing confidence in higher education.
It appears that Americans do not trust that higher education is worth the ever-growing price tag. A report from the Pew Research Center found that only one in four Americans believe that a four-year degree is needed for a well-paying job today, indicating that people are searching elsewhere for a way to get a job.
In the podcast “Changing Higher Ed,” Robert Massa, co-founder of Enrollment Intelligence Now and vice president emeritus for enrollment and college relations at Dickinson College, spoke about issues with enrollment.
“A combination of the increasing list price and a decline in the perception of the value of a college degree… has resulted in a decline in the percentage of high school graduates going on to college,” Massa said.
Miller critiques this argument against higher education as around 97% of Seattle U students find job placement only six months after graduation. Furthermore, Miller states that Seattle U is rated highly in terms of return on investment, while graduates say that they are highly satisfied with their experience. Miller disagrees with the growing sentiment that a college is not worth it anymore.
“In short, every view of current early career, mid-career, and lifelong earnings, well-being, and happiness are clear: there is no better lifetime social mobility accelerator than earning a bachelor’s degree,” Miller wrote.
Seattle University’s Future
All of the previously mentioned factors play a role in decreasing enrollment, some more than others. The main concern for universities across the nation is how they are going to deal with the changes in enrollment financially. According to Chief Financial Officer Chris Malins, Seattle U is going into the upcoming unprecedented years with a plan.
Malins noted how overall, revenue and enrollment have increased over time. The main issue according to him is expenses outpacing revenue. He noted how Seattle U anticipated decreasing enrollment as they planned for a deficit between expenses and revenue, yet he states this is the last year of deficits for the university.
Malins listed multiple ways the university is looking to decrease the deficit. One way is through targeted expense reductions, such as selective staff hiring slowdown. He says that the university is committed to ensuring that those reductions do not negatively impact the student experience. Malins also notes how changes to faculty and programs may be on the way, in an attempt to reduce the deficit.
“We are addressing this longer-term challenge in part, as President Peñalver has discussed with the campus community, by aligning our student-to-faculty ratio with our peer institutions and reviewing program offerings,” Malins wrote.
Malins is referring to President Penalver’s presidential town hall where he mentioned how. through natural attrition, the university intends to increase the student-to-faculty ratio to better align with our fellow Jesuit universities.
Yet, despite the uncertainty of higher education, some people’s hopes stay unwavering.
According to Miller, there are many reasons to be hopeful for Seattle U’s future. He notes how from the pandemic each first-year class has been progressively bigger. Miller also points out how Seattle U is even doing better than other private institutions of higher education.
“We are the most ethnically and socioeconomically diverse selective university in the State of Washington. Our outcomes for the neediest students are nearly as good as those for the general student body, which is unusual at private universities,” Miller wrote.
As Seattle U heads into 2025, it continues to tread into unforeseen times with unexpected surprises. While the university is dealing with a budget deficit and decreasing enrollment, it is also receiving a $300 million art donation and could welcome around 400 new students in a possible Cornish College of the Arts merger.
Due to an amalgam of social and financial factors, the state of higher education is in a deeply transitory period, of which Seattle U is no exception.
